Electric vehicles embedded themselves into our vision of a carbon neutral world. This despite the face that they currently come with a weighty carbon footprint, and there are technical problems we must resolve. Today, we take a step back from all the hype. We ask what the realistic electric vehicle battery forecast is. What are our children likely to see?
The Bottom Line: A Realistic Electric Vehicle Battery Forecast
There is no denying Engineering.Com’s belief electric motors are superior to combustion engines in almost every department. That’s because they are less carbon intensive, more energy efficient, and respond faster with higher torque. They also do not burn fossil fuel.
However, limited battery capacity means electric vehicles travel shorter distances between refilling stations. And right now these are few and far between, outside a few advanced cities. The combustion engine revolution released us from needing grazing for horses and gave us freedom to travel. A realistic electric vehicle battery forecast suggests 45% of new vehicles will still run on gasoline in 2040.
Did That Shock You? Read on to Discover Why
Electric vehicle batteries are expensive. In fact they contribute up to 50% of new vehicle cost. That’s like purchasing your gasoline supplies five year ahead. If you did, and stored it properly is should preserve close to 100% of its energy. Unfortunately, that’s not the case with electricity storage.
A realistic electric vehicle battery forecast must incorporate degrading electric vehicle battery cells in its calculation. There are currently four commercially available technologies. Lead-acid is cheap and stable, but has a low energy-weight ratio. Nickel-metal-hydride has long battery life although patent interests hold it back. Zebra sodium-nickel-chloride batteries require pre-heating.
Lithium-ion batteries are therefore commonest by the process of elimination. However, their prices will have to come down, and their safety improve before we could better our forecast for electric vehicle batteries.
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