We hold the future of our species in our hands. We know our emissions are driving the climate emergency. Although it is possible the great warming approaching is a cyclical event. There’s a concept called positive outcome bias. This may help us understand why there is still resistance in some quarters regarding where climate change may lead.
How Positive Outcome Bias Obscures Realistic Thinking
Let’s imagine we are an aircraft pilot. The weather has been worsening in the last few hours, but we are determined to fly home. We know there are some serious risks, yet we have followed the route before in similar weather.
Positive outcome bias convinces us to believe it is still safe to take off, despite what our training teaches us. The inclination persuades us to reach our decision, based on the quality of the outcome we expect. In so doing, we ignore the factors that could affect this result. David Robson says “This can render us oblivious to potentially catastrophic errors in our thinking”.
How History Clouds Our Climate Thinking
Researchers were investigating lemming-like pilot behavior in 2016. They found they were more likely to ignore deteriorating weather conditions, when other pilots had flown successfully through them.
The little ice age a few centuries ago showed how rapidly global temperatures could change, although the situation returned to normal after several hundred years. Comforting evidence like this fuels positive outcome bias. We decide we don’t have to worry about current warming. After all, denying something bad might happen is in the nature of being human.
However, when our positive bias steers us in the direction of our own extinction we need to resist it. We need to tell our leaders enough is enough. If school children can climate strike then surely we as adults may do so as well? Anything less, surely would be ‘flying irresponsibly’.
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Preview Image: Flying Through Storms
