The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment warned of “new and stronger evidence” that humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions were causing the warming. The nations outside the Kyoto Protocol did little about this. However, the protocol gained the force of law over the few countries still within it in 2005. Tony Blair became chair of G8 and president of EU that year, declaring climate change a priority. The following year the Stern Review declared the world could afford to fix it.
The Headline Findings of the Stern Review
The Stern Review was a UK-funded initiative headed by Nicholas Stern. He was chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics. And also chair of the Centre for Climate Change, Economics, and Policy at Leeds University.
The Stern Review’s main conclusion was “the benefits of strong, early action on climate change far outweigh the costs of doing nothing”. One key finding was climate change “could damage global GDP by up to 20% if left unchecked. But curbing it would cost about 1% of global GDP.” The avoidable costs included food production, health, water resources, and the environment itself. https://youtu.be/xMGgS5wzqXQ
Nicholas Stern Speaking About Global Change in 2015
Responses varied. Tony Blair declared, “The review demonstrates that scientific evidence of global warming is overwhelming. And its consequences are disastrous if the world fails to act.” However, Ruth Lea, Director of the Centre for Policy Studies questioned the scientific consensus underpinning the Stern Review.
She responded, “Authorities on climate science say that the climate system is far too complex for modest reductions in one of the thousands of factors involved in climate change (i.e., carbon emissions) to have a predictable effect in magnitude, or even direction.” She further questioned the long-term projections supporting the overall Stern Review conclusion.
Fast Forward to the 2013 World Economic Forum
Nicholas Stern later told the 2013 World Economic Forum he had underestimated the damage of doing nothing. “Some of the effects are coming through more quickly than we thought then,” he said. He now believes we are “on track for something like four degrees” global temperature rise by the turn of the century.
Related
Climate Change Part 25: IPCC-3 Finds Stronger Evidence
Climate Change Part 24: George W Bush Energy Policy Kills Kyoto
Preview Image: Mount Yasur Eruption
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