South Africa has a population of over 49 million people, with a median age of 27.6 years. This therefore makes it the 24th most populous country in the world. It also has the highest HIV rate of 20.4% among adults aged 15 to 49 years. And the widest availability of antiretroviral drugs. On September 14, 2020 health minister Zweli Mkhize announced a surprisingly high antibody rate among South Africans for coronavirus.
Evidence of a High Antibody Rate Among South Africans
On September 16, 2020 WorldoMeter reported a total 651,521 cases (1.33% of population) resulting in 15,641 deaths (2.40% of infections) in South Africa. Data from 3,940,217 tests was available representing 8.04% of population. Now analysis of these tests has suggested a high antibody rate among South Africans.
Medical experts had been surprised at the low rate of COVID-19 deaths in South Africa, given cramped conditions in informal settlements. And growing disregard for distancing and face masking. Some have wondered whether HIV vaccines and high rates of flu infections in overcrowded settlements are behind this.
How the Real COVID-19 Infection Rate Was Much Higher
South Africa only tests people with COVID-19 symptoms referred to mobile testing stations by clinics and medical professionals. This is because of the consequence of a lingering shortage of test kits, and financial constraints. However, there is still much we can learn from these non-random convenience samples.
In South Africa’s case, the health minister told Times Live the analysis revealed between 29% and 40% seroprevalence for coronavirus. This means the subjects already had antibodies when health providers suspected they might have COVID-19.
Running the numbers behind this high antibody rate among South Africans suggests about 12 million of them (20% of population) were infected with the coronavirus without knowing it. This may explain why the country’s official infection rate has remained so low compared to North America and Europe. We are running a national study now, Zweli Mkhize says. And we will communicate the results as soon as we have them.
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Preview Image: Seroprevalence Survey
