We know from early experience in Wuhan Province there’s a deal of uncertainty when a new disease emerges. This is why we speak about information, not facts flowing around the new COVID virus. We know most of what is emerging will turn out true, because we trust the good intention of our scientists. However, some will almost inevitably turn out to be off-beam.
What We Know for Sure About the Mutated Virus
The new virus came to world attention first in United Kingdom. It spread fast, accelerated the surge, and became the leading form of the virus within just three months. In Greater London it already accounts for 60% of all cases. Scientists now believe it is 56% more transmissible than the original COVID virus. This is somewhat down from their previous estimate of 70%.
Tentative Information Flowing About New COVID Virus
The new form of the coronavirus may replicate faster in North America too. But this time we have forewarning and the benefits of past experience. We need to religiously adhere to sensible precautions, says Apoorva Mandavilli writing in New York Times January 3, 2021.
Our graphic shows UK deeply affected by the new strain, while US waits for it to bite. However, it does not seem to make people sicker or die more, says Angela Rasmussen, virologist affiliated with Georgetown University. ‘In that sense, it’s just a numbers game’, she adds.
What the Numbers Game May Mean As It Multiplies
But this numbers game will spill out to more infected people not showing symptoms at one end of the spectrum, surely? And more vulnerable people queuing for ICU beds at the other extreme. A worrisome study at Birmingham University, United Kingdom tested respiratory samples from people with the new infection.
‘We found people carrying greater amounts of the virus,’ says Michael Kidd, a clinical virologist at Public Health England. ‘These were between 10-fold greater and 10,000-fold greater than we expected.’ We will report fresh information flowing around the new COVID virus as the tale unfolds.
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Preview Image: Daily New Cases US and UK
