This post completes a set of four, attempting to understand the likelihood of a second wave in the fall. The correct answer is, it’s likely to happen, but that’s the only definitive clue we could find. North Americans may have been fortunate the first wave appeared in summer when the temperature was warmer. However, there may be complicating factors for COVID-19 in the fall.
Low Immunity will be a Complicating Factor for COVID-19 this Fall
In early days of COVID-19, we thought immunity was a certainty after a SARS-CoV-2 infection. We believed herd immunity would develop sufficiently to prevent a major future outbreak. However, our scientists are more cautious about these factors nowadays. That’s because our understanding of them is still limited.
If the herd immunity theory is correct, then we would need about 70% of the population to survive infections according to James Hopkins Medicine. At the time of writing, North America’s 579 million people had only recorded 4.9 million infections (0.8%) according to Wikipedia. This suggests a lack of herd immunity may be a complicating factor for COVID-19 in the fall
Therefore, it Seems Prudent to Prepare for a Second Wave
Events in other countries suggest we are a long way from controlling the disease. There are numerous reasons for this. Many of these relate to widespread failure to take it seriously. Many of us are hanging on for a vaccine with little thought how long it would take us to receive it.
This could be a major complicating factor for COVID-19 in the fall. Perhaps it’s time to get back to basics. Maybe we should return to days before COVID-fatigue set in. Here’s how to protect yourself and your household, and put a stranglehold on the spread according to John Hopkins Medicine.:
1… Diligently continue hand washing, mask wearing, and physical distancing
2… Stay up to date with ground-breaking scientific information. Ignore fake news
3… Maintain a two-week supply of prescription medicine, food and other supplies
4…Confirm you and your household, especially kids, received flu and other vaccines
Related
Second Wave of Coronavirus and the Weather
The First and Second Waves of Coronavirus
Preview Image: Cycle of Pathogenic Infection
