Infectious diseases begin with outbreaks, and spread rapidly where there is no natural immunity. If they travel across international borders, then they become pandemics. However, once vaccinated and natural immunity regain control, we call them endemics because the spread is manageable. What about COVID? Should we slip into an endemic and move on?
Can We Slip Into An Endemic and Move On At This Stage?
The Hindu news channel opened the debate on June 25, 2022 in the context of India. Now India is the second most populous nation where 17.7% of the world’s people live. As we can see from the graph the disease appears manageable. But what do local specialists say?
Jacob John is retired professor of virology at Christian Medical College Vellore, a community-run medical school, hospital and research institute. He notes new cases are below 10 % of the seven-day average of cases during the peak of Omicron. Moreover, the disturbances in the flat line since the drop have been very minor, he adds.
Epidemiologist, and public policy and health systems specialist Chandrakant Lahariya uses a different approach to reach the same conclusion. He believes the extent of social and economic impact inclines him to believe we should move on. We may not have reached the endemic phase but life is returning to normal.
So Is It Case Closed India Is In An Endemic?
However, Lahariya is not saying his country India has reached endemic phase. “We should approach it from the practical position of ‘acceptable risk’ in terms of disrupting social and economic life,” he recommends.
“India has reached a stage wherein the virus is not creating great havoc in terms of death or morbidity. Three years down the line, a nation could look back and mark the point of time in which it turned endemic. But it is not logical or practical to look for these signs now,” he explains.
But John closes the debate with a warning. We made inroads unto the pandemic with mass vaccination and mask-wearing, he points out. Those programs have lost steam along the way, he frets. If left to the individual’s choice, compliance will be very low.
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