COVID-19 tends to spread in clusters that often stem from groups of people together. Noteworthy examples include religious gatherings, dormitories for migrant workers, and cruise ships. Scientists call the degree a disease clusters, the ‘K’ factor when measuring dispersion. A low measure means a small number of people cause the infection. We discuss super spreading and K factors in more detail in this post.
Super Spreading and K Factors of Infectious Diseases
Other infectious diseases also spread in clusters. The K factors for SARS and MERS were approximately 0.16 and 0.25 respectively. Whereas the factor for the Spanish Flu epidemic was around 1.0 suggesting clusters played a lesser role.
Science Mag ascribes a K factor of 0.1 to COVID-19 in terms of research at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). This means clusters play a significant role in super spreading and K factor scores. Many infected people do not transmit the virus at all. Adam Kucharski of LSHTM says 10% of infected cases are responsible for 80% of the spread.
What This Data Tells Us about Self-Protection from the Disease
These numbers suggest we have a statistically higher chance of encountering a super spreader in a crowd of people. They also help answer puzzling questions about the initial outbreak.
Science Mag suggests most first infection chains from China faded with SARS-C0V-2 because of the K factor. They would have needed to repeat four times to gain a foothold in a new host country. As Adam Kucharski says, most of the China epidemic sparks simply died out.
The risk of contracting a virus depends on super spreading, K factors and situational variables. The spreader may breathe out more than an average person when they speak, or shout or sing songs at a gathering. We learn social distancing is more than face masks. We may need to stay away from social and work groups too.
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Preview Image: A Super-Spreading Event
