There seems to be no doubt that the coronavirus raging through Italy will reduce green-house gas emissions this year. Factories will go into slower production as international trade stumbles. Overseas travel will take a hard knock so there’ll be lower emissions from cruise ships and airplanes. But will Covid-19 help us control global warming? James Temple writing in Technology Review says no it won’t.
So Will Covid-19 Help Us Control Global Warming At All?
Past experience of international disasters such as epidemics, wars and economic shocks show the human will inevitably bounces back. We should have a vaccine within a year, where after countries that can afford it should recover rapidly.
In the interim, governments may have to apply all their energy and funds to fight what is starting to look like a global pandemic. They may have to raid their climate change war chests too. In fact, James Temple says they should, because the immediate health danger is a greater threat. Therefore his reply to the question will Covid-19 help us control global warming is probably not.
In Fact, Our Drive Towards a Green Economy Could Actually Slow
James Temple’s reasoning is difficult to counter. If capital markets go into lock down, then there could be no finance for solar and wind projects with battery backup. Moreover, if global oil prices remain low, then electric transport becomes less competitive.
China produces a huge part of the global supply of lithium batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. Supply problems at that end are throttling production back. If the current campaign in some quarters to reduce trade with China continues, then this could set the green energy movement back.
Emissions in China have not slowed because of a shift in political will, or public opinion. The answer to the question will Covid-19 help us control global warming in the long term, is therefore unlikely at best.
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