The 1918 ‘Spanish Flu’ outbreak was the most deadly human pandemic ever. It infected a third of the global population, and 10% of infections died. The first wave was gentle with few direct deaths, while the second was deadly. The third was worst of all, but after that the infections became little more than seasonal flu. We review two aspects of Omicron to watch carefully, with this as background .
In the First Instance, We Are Better Equipped Nowadays
There were no vaccines against the ‘Spanish Flu’. Nor were there any scientific tests, genome sequencing, or monoclonal treatments. Back then you waited to see whether you lived or died. U.S. Centers for Disease Control says we still do not fully understand the historic 1918 H1N1 virus that caused it.
But we do know there were no antibiotic treatments for secondary infections. Although there were globally uncoordinated efforts to enforce isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings. Thus, it seems likely the virus eventually mutated into something harmless of its own accord.
There Are Two Aspects of Omicron to Monitor Carefully
Bloomberg wrote a thought piece on December 13, 2021 that gathered some loose thoughts together. Much of the early evidence of Omicron severity comes from South Africa. This has a young population with relatively high TB and HIV comorbidity rates, although treatment programs are available.
Bloomberg suggests three theories how Omicron reached South Africa:
1… An immuno suppressed person harbored an earlier mutation long enough to allow the new variant to develop.
2… An earlier one crossed over to an animal, remained there long enough to mutate, and then crossed back to a human.
3… Omicron appeared elsewhere with inadequate genetic sequencing and health care. Someone brought it to South Africa.
The two aspects of Omicron to monitor carefully are how infected cases develop in the next two weeks. And secondly how well our vaccines control their symptoms. Meanwhile we could be wise not to mix with people we don’t have to. For the sake of ourselves and each other too.
Breaking News
Predicting the Emerging Symptoms of Omicron
Staying Positive Despite the Omicron Turn
Preview Image: Share of Omicron Sequences
