Is the rise of batteries unstoppable, asks Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) on January 25, 2024. We agree we are seeing close to exponential sales growth, with each success building on another. This could be a great bonus for the struggle against power and transport emissions. We review RMI’s six trends behind what it calls a ‘cascade effect’.
The Rise Of Batteries Is Following The S Curve
The S Curve typically follows the gradual start of disruptive technologies, that transforms to a steep curve. All technologies finally flatten out, most technologies eventually decline. The rise of batteries is tracking the growth phase after starting slowly.
Battery Quality Is Improving As Costs Decline
Battery energy storage density is steadily increasing. Meanwhile, manufacturing costs have fallen 99% over the past 30 years, according to RMI. This composite trend is in terms of the laws of supply and demand. In other words, the more products we sell, the cheaper they are to manufacture.
A Battery Domino Effect Has Clicked In
It pays to give this factor careful attention, as we ponder over whether the rise of batteries will sustain. Certainly, we do know that brands rise and fall, and that the market is fickle. However, it is an undeniable fact that upstarts follow old leads with new ideas, and even better batteries.
Statisticians Can’t Keep Up With Progress
Rocky Mountain Institute has focused on accelerating the transition to clean energy for decades, and knows a thing or two about forecasting change. Most statisticians miss the main point, RMI believes, because they don’t understand how exponential growth follows rapidly declining price which is happening now.
Adoption of Batteries Will Strengthen Further
There’s no doubt in RMI’s mind that the following will be true by 2030:
- Top tier battery density will range between 600 and 800 watt-hours per kilogram.
- Costs will fall to $32–$54 per kWh. Sales will be 5 – 8 trillion watt hours per year.
- Policy support from governments will tighten, as economic blocks wrestle for global dominance.
Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Will Become Possible
The above five drivers will enable battery technology that becomes simply better than fossil fuel. The debate will shift from is the rise of batteries unstoppable, to proactively reducing fossil fuel demand.
Batteries will fully synchronize with the sun and the wind. The great transition will finally have become possible. The drive to reduce global warming will have begun.
More Information
Electric Vehicle Sales Good News for Batteries
Battery Trends For New Year 2024
