Climate change simulations have been mostly accurate down the years, according to Voice of America on December 4, 2019. In fact, Svante Arrhenius related warming to atmospheric carbon dioxide in 1896, although he thought this was a positive trend. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather from University of California, Berkeley has completed a study confirming climate change model accuracy over the past 50 years.
Climate Change Simulations Were Largely Accurate
Predictions of the effect of heat-trapping gases were pretty spot on, Zeke Hausfather says. He completed the study after he grew tired of critics claiming the reports were no use at all. So he tracked down 17 climate change simulations between 1970 and 2007 to prove those critics were wrong.
His findings indicate the majority of the forecast trends were ‘indistinguishable’ from what actually transpired. “By and large our models have gotten it right, plus or minus a little bit,” he reported. “If they get it wrong, it’s slightly on the warm side, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.” 10 of the 17 studies were close to what happened, but that does not mean the others had no value.
Zeke Hausfather and Climate Future
What Matters Most Was Climatologists Understood the Physics
There were two factors common to all 17 climate change simulations. These were first guessing the future heat-trapping gas concentration, and then predicting the warming that would follow. More than 10 of the scientists got the relationship right, although they had to best-guess the greenhouse gas levels.
Zake Hausfather and his colleagues, including NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt factored out these errors. They found 14 of the 17 scientists accurately predicted the future on that basis. In fact their average accuracy was 69%. The most successful prediction back in 1970 scored 91%, even though the warming was hardly noticeable then.
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Preview Image: Global Temperature Trends
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