We wrote recently about how we are depleting the solar energy stored in biomass by clearing vegetation. Scientists tell us we are reaching the tipping point with global warming. Thorsten Mauritsen from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, and Robert Pincus of University of Colorado agree. They say earth’s battery is out of balance, and this will take several thousand years to correct.
Earth’s Battery Is Out Of Balance Due to CO2 Emissions
The two scientists believe Earth’s temperatures rose 0.8° C since the industrial revolution began in the 1760’s. This will increase by another 0.3° in the next few years even if we stopped using fossil completely. Thorsten Mauritsen therefore believes the 2015 Paris Agreements’ target of not surpassing 1.5 ° C is unrealistic because, “we are already past that point”.
Earth’s battery is out of balance because the Earth is a system, he explains. “More energy is flowing into the system than is flowing back out. This excess energy is mainly absorbed by the oceans. Water has a high heat capacity and consequently a long reaction time.
As a result, at present the oceans are cooling the air. Over time, however, the deep ocean layers will also warm up. Until finally, after thousands of years the climate will settle down at a higher average ocean and atmospheric temperature. If there were no new emissions, the temperature at the end of this century would still be 1.1° Celsius higher than before the industrial revolution.”
However, if we cease burning fossil fuels, the aerosol particles this releases will stop countering global warming. This will cause a temperature spike before the situation settles down again. C02 has a long lifespan of thousands of years and it is not believed that we will cease pumping it for a long time.
Thorsten Mauritsen believes there is a 13% possibility we have already exceeded the 2015 target of 1.5 ° C global warming. Even if we ceased burning fossil fuels completely, it would be 30 years before we knew whether we met the 1.5 ° C target or not. Earths battery is out of balance and it will be for some time.
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Preview Image: Global Climate Report – March 2017
