EV battery replacement is a hot topic for prospective purchasers of electric vehicles, and nay-saying skeptics alike. Rumors and theories abound. But now, an in-depth study in Recurrent Auto brings us closer to the truth. The reality is EV battery replacement happens less frequently than many of us suspect. So today we have a good-news story to tell.
Why EV Battery Replacement Is Such An Issue
An electric battery typically contributes 35% to 50% of the total cost of an electric auto. This suggests that if a vehicle has depreciated 50% by resale value, and the battery has failed, then the car might not be worth much if the battery warranty has expired.
However, GM Authority suggests this is an unlikely event, based on information from the Recurrent Auto report. This data suggests that EV battery replacement only became necessary in under 1% of post-2015 vehicles outside of factory recalls.
However, this factor grows to 2.5% of battery packs in 2011 to 2024 electric car models. And this in turn suggests that failing batteries were more likely in the past than they are today. Or perhaps this just an age-driven issue, but maybe it is not, as Recurrent Auto suggests.
Perhaps Electric Vehicle Batteries Are Improving
This seems to be the most likely scenario for several reasons we summarize here:
- The highest rate of battery failure is among first-gen electric cars now 14 years old.
- Average battery size increased 122% between 2015 and 2022, meaning there are more cells.
- New models are less likely to require EV battery replacement because they have ‘spare’ capacity.
- The failure rate should come down further as battery and thermal management systems mature.
The above data suggests that the vast majority of electric car batteries will have long, useful lives. It follows that we shall have to be patient, and wait until the vast majority of those lives have ended.
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