Human activity is causing global warming. There’s no doubt about this in the mind of the scientific community. However, it’s also essential to understand seasonal variations because climate deniers seize them to bolster their positions. A new report just out, explains how global warming trends are affected by transient natural events that come and go.
Going Back Half a Century to Explain How Global Warming Varies
Global warming does not happen in a straight line. In fact, few things do in nature. The ‘early warming period’ between 1915 and 1945 has mystified scientists according to e-journal, Carbon Brief. This happened faster than human activity alone could have caused. However researchers Karsted Haustein and Fredererike Otto believe they know how global warming varies from the trend.
Their research suggests that half of the 1915 to 1945 early warming occurred due to natural variations in the climate system. The rest they say is down to ‘human-caused’ greenhouse gas emissions, volcanic eruptions and variability in the sun’s output’. Their finding has caused other scientists to wonder whether long-term ocean cycles also influence global temperatures.
Carbon Brief’s Panel Challenges this ‘Prevailing View’
Carbon Brief’s expert panel, including Karsted Haustein and Fredererike Otto, dispute the theory that Atlantic multi-decadal variability explains the variations. That’s because they don’t believe the surface temperature oscillation phenomenon explains how global warming varies as it did between 1915 and 1945.
They argue the surge in global temperature was not the result of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation affecting sea surface temperatures. Instead, they say external drivers caused virtually all the observed changes in global average temperatures over the past 170 years.
Their evidence includes a graph that relates temperature changes to ‘external forcing factors. “This allows us to include both fast and slow climate responses to the different drivers,” they explain. “And it reflects the role the ocean plays in buffering the rate of warming observed.”
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Preview Image: Temperature Anomaly Monthly Mean April 2016
