South Africa’s Omicron outbreak accelerated rapidly, although the hospital load has been surprisingly low. While scientists previously suggested this was due to the variant causing less severe symptoms, it now seems possible this may not be the case in other countries. We discuss lessons from South Africa’s Omicron outbreak that appear to support this idea. Although we emphasize this is just a theory at this stage.
What We Could Learn from South Africa’s Experience.
Hospital admissions are not increasing at a rate we might have expected given the case load. Rachel Schraer and Peter Mwai posting in BBC Reality Check add fewer patients need breathing support. And they are staying in hospital for shorter periods too.
The probability of admission is also 30% lower, according to major healthcare provider Netcare. But senior South African scientists are now saying this does not necessarily mean Omicron is milder. The variable may be the rate of vaccination, and natural immunity of the people.
1… Most hospital admissions are patients under 40, and so with a stronger natural immunity.
2… South Africa tests every admission, and this increases the relative proportion of mild cases.
3… People over 60 in South Africa are more likely to have vaccinations than the average population.
4… The South African median age is 27.6. By comparison UK is 40.4, and United States 38.1.
More Lessons from South Africa’s Omicron Outbreak
More children are being admitted to South African hospitals than in previous waves. However, many are from impoverished areas, and their malnourishment may have made them more vulnerable. But they do recover within a few days, and child admission rate has fallen from 14% to 8%.
The overall South African full vaccination rate is 26%. The variant is still spreading fast, including in the vaccinated population. But the available evidence suggests full Pfizer vaccine is still preventing 70% of admissions, rising to 90% with boosters.
These lessons from South Africa’s Omicron outbreak are food for thought indeed. Although BBC’s Rachel Schraer and Peter Mwai warn they may not repeat in other countries, with different population demographics.
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Preview Image: South African Daily Infections
