An epidemic is a disease in a particular area that spreads at an unexpectedly high rate. It becomes a pandemic when the growth becomes exponential, according to Columbia Mailman School of Public Health. However, all pandemics eventually scale down to endemics where they are consistently present in particular regions. If we peer into the future what will the endemic future of COVID look like?
What Will Life Be Like in a COVID Endemic?
Yonatan Grad, and Melvin and Geraldine Glimcher wrote a thought piece for Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Their vision of the endemic future of COVID depends on the extent of our natural immunity after infections, and vaccinated protection. Although social contact and the infectiousness of the dominant virus will also play a role.
But the emerging endemic will not spell the end of infections. Instead, enough of us will have sufficient immunity to reduce transmission, hospitalization, and death to manageable proportions. We have achieved that globally with Ebola and SARS. When they pop up, we beat them back. There’s no known reason why COVID-19 should be different.
Historic Evidence for the Endemic Future of COVID
The T.H. Chan School of Public Health scientists cite several examples of flu outbreaks, all of which subsided to endemic level. There’s a link to their report at the end of this post if you would like more detail.
However, the main takeaway from those flu outbreaks is the population gained immunity after infections and / or vaccines. The people in the affected areas also became smarter at avoiding the disease. Some past pandemics changed the way we behave permanently.
Screens on doors and windows keep yellow fever and malaria away, where mosquitos are endemic. Other protective measures help control HIV AIDS. The profile of the COVID endemic will be a reflection of the extent to which we apply its precautions, and collaborate globally.
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Preview Image: Outbreak, Endemic, Epidemic, Pandemic
