The transmission potential of a pathogen, such as a virus is the expected number of people one case could infect. It follows that we are in control of the pandemic, because we are in charge of how it spreads. But the transmission potential of the Delta Plus variant is only one factor determining how influential the new COVID-19 variant might be.
Early Indications How Virulent Delta Plus Could Become
The transmission potential of the new virus will determine whether it will become the dominant one. And therefore the extent it will challenge our hard-won natural, and vaccinated immunity. There’s an interesting news item trending in India, the crucible where the Delta variant may have forged. We decided to share what we learned from 5 Dariya News, because it may, or may not be very important.
Dr. N K Aurora is a member of the Indian Council of Medical Research. He is also executive director of Inclen Trust International, supported by the Child Health Nutrition Group. While Dr. Aurora concedes the new variant ‘is very strong and clings to the lungs’. He does not however believe this necessarily means the transmission potential of the Delta Plus variant will be ‘very high’.
First Clues to the Transmission Potential of the Delta Plus Variant
Dr. N K Aurora explained to a media briefing there are still very few cases from which to judge trends. And therefore we cannot yet say how Delta Plus will affect the path of the pandemic.
The Indian Health Ministry says its impact will depend on three things. And these parameters are (a) the level of transmission, (b) how will it affect the pandemic, and (c) how it will respond to vaccines.
Thus far, all COVID variants have been highly transmissible. But their effectiveness is low, given the high number of mild and asymptomatic cases. Dr. N K Aurora makes the interesting observation a highly effective virus may carry the seeds of its own destruction.
That’s because the more deaths it causes, the less it can spread to other people. Therefore, high transmission potential could be only one factor to consider when assessing any new variant.
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Preview Image: Viral Load and Transmissibility
