We are traveling through uncharted water with scarcely six month’s experience of Covid-19 behind us. It has unique features compared to other coronavirus strains. We have noticed a tailing off of the northern hemisphere infection rate as spring approaches. The world is wondering will Covid hibernate or be with us for summer.
Is Social Distancing Working or Will Covid Hibernate?
A Harvard study posted in Science Journal suggests that we are not through the hard times with Covid-19. It says while social distancing may smooth the curve, this will rise again once we lift the restriction on ‘overwhelming hospitals’.
The answer to the question will Covid hibernate this summer is therefore a resounding no according to the Harvard scientists. This will have ‘profound economic, social and educational consequences,’ they warn. However, lifting and re-imposing restrictions should result in smaller community outbreaks easier to contain in hospitals.
Over Time We Will Gradually Develop a ‘Herd Immunity’ Shield
This on-off approach will progressively create a ‘herd immunity’ whereby so many people are immune cross-infections are rare. Harvard epidemiologist and study co-author Marc Lipsitch told a press conference this will require ‘several rounds of social distancing’.
In terms of this model, Covid will not hibernate but will be with us through summer and beyond. However, new treatments and vaccines could change this reality of course. That said, the cycle could be with us through to 2022 without an effective vaccine.
Other findings from the study include fresh outbreaks could occur at any time of year. However, autumn / winter breakouts will be more severe than winter / spring ones. Will Covid hibernate or be with us for summer is therefore no longer an open ended question according to the Harvard team. It will be with us until we contain it one way or the other..
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Preview Image: An Early Spring Thaw
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