This is the first post in a short series about virus waves and what drives them, with special reference to COVID-19. The initial wave is declining in some countries, while spiking sharply in others. We believe it’s important to understand how the first and second waves of a coronavirus work, because there’s a likelihood of a second COVID wave in the fall.
Are We Still in the First Wave of the Coronavirus?
John Hopkins Medicine believes we are still solidly in the first wave. Although in the United States this has been more like a patchwork quilt, they say. Some cities and towns appear to be through their peaks and recovering, while others are still rising to their crests. Places at highest risk seem to be where people work, and live closely together.
However, first and second waves of the coronavirus are not the same as outbreaks in nursing homes and meat factories. They are not like spikes when a super-spreader infects many people at an event. John Hopkins Medicine says they occur when people become frustrated by slow progress, and then drop their guard as COVID fatigue spreads.
We Are Seeing Spikes in the First Wave as We Re-Open
The world’s nations are snared on the horns of a dilemma, as they strive to balance limiting infections and re-generating their economies. When they ease off, significant numbers of people relax, drop their guard, and start new infection chains. A week or two intervenes before they realize they are ill, by which time they have spawned several cycles.
It can take a month for a new spike to show up in government data, by which time it is firmly entrenched. A temporary lock down may help contain it. However, spikes will occur as long as insufficient people take basic precautions. We are still in the first wave of the coronavirus; the second may depend on the winter weather.
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Preview Image: UK 2009 Swine Flu Epidemic
