NPR News reports the P1 Brazil variant has scientists deeply worried, because of the massive resurgence in Manaus, Brazil. This is the seventh-largest city in that country with a population over two million. But virus expert Jeremy Luban from University of Massachusetts said that the infection rate there already reached 75% the previous spring.
Two Things About the Brazil Variant Are Deeply Concerning
Variant P1 took only a month to dominate the city, compare to three months for the UK mutant. Moreover, there should have been herd immunity, but this did not stop the massive surge. Is variant P1 evading antibodies from previous infections, or is it more contagious? Epidemiologist Bill Hanage at Harvard University wrote on Twitter, ‘none of the explanations on the table are good’.
The Brazil and South African variants both have mutations along their surface, to which antibodies bind. Penny Moore at South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases, and at University of KwaZulu-Natal fears these are allowing ‘immune escape’. In other words, the mutations help the virus evade antibodies, or cloak them with a new identity.
More Reasons Scientists Are Worried about the Brazil Variant
Penny Moore and her colleagues drew serum from 44 people previously infected by original COVID-19. When they tested those samples against the South African variant they saw ‘quite a dramatic drop-off in sensitivity’. Moreover, half the serum samples were ‘significantly less effective against the South African mutation’.
They have not yet repeated this with the P1 Brazil variant that has scientists deeply worried too, although other researchers report two mutations that also reduce antibody binding. Virus expert Ravi Gupta of Cambridge, England had sobering words for NPR News. ‘We’ve got used to making new vaccines for influenza every year’, he says.
‘This process is going to cost the world a great deal of money, and take time, he added. ‘I don’t think there’s going to be a single solution that just comes along in 2021 that says, ‘That’s it, we did it.’
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Preview Image: Financial Center of Manaus
