McKinsey & Company Healthcare Systems & Services revised their earlier timeline of first or second quarter 2021. They now say US herd immunity could be by Q3 or Q4 2021, based on feedback from vaccine trials. This also puts their alternative timeline of sometime in 2022 to bed. At least this gives us some idea what could be waiting for us in the New Year.
Anthony Fauci Factors in the Effect of Vaccine Mistrust
McKinsey & Company may be statisticians playing numbers. Anthony Fauci is a physician and immunologist with deeper insight of the inner workings of the virus. He seemed less confident US herd immunity could be by Q3 or Q4 2021.
‘If 75 percent to 80 percent of Americans are vaccinated,’ he told The Harvard Gazette. ‘Then by the end of 2021, we can reach a degree of normality. However, if vaccination levels are significantly lower, 40 percent to 50 percent,’ he warns. ‘Then it could take a very long time to reach that level of protection.’
Vaccine Mistrust Is Key to US Herd Immunity Q3 or Q4 2021
George Daley is Dean of Harvard Medical School. He told The Harvard Gazette ‘Vaccine mistrust is dangerous, but so is overconfidence. We need to be wary of the dangers of magical thinking, of seeing vaccines as a silver bullet.
‘Vaccines will not offer an overnight solution. We have to temper our optimism with a dose of reality. And brace ourselves for many more months of infection prevention, and distancing measures as the vaccines are rolled out.’
The COVID vaccines may well be ‘science, medicine, and public health at its best’ as Daley puts it. However, our social nature dictates it’s what we do with them makes the difference. We should stand shoulder to shoulder on this as we welcome in 2021.
Related
Dreaming of a Safer Christmas In 2021
Way to Go to Counter the Virus with Immunity
Preview Image: Herd Immunity Standing Together
