The theory of herd immunity says when 80% of us have immunity, we shelter the remaining 20% from infection. This assumes infected people who survive develop antibodies. However, a current report from the Lancet Journal reports sero-negativity does not last long and immunity fades. Could this be farewell to herd immunity from COVID-19?
Sheer Numbers Say Farewell to Herd Immunity from COVID-19
This is not the first study suggesting this could be the case. However, the research reported in The Lancet is more far-reaching than some previous studies. The scientists selected a sample of over 60,000 people drawn from more than 35,000 Spanish households. They used two-stage random sampling stratified by province and municipality size, and invited all residents to participate.
The researchers estimate barely 5% of the Spanish population developed antibodies when all the results were in. The proportion was only 3% in coastal areas, but higher inland where outbreaks were more severe. The scientists believe we can therefore say farewell to the strategy of using herd immunity to shield us from COVID-19.
Collateral Damage Would Be Too Severe to Follow That Route
The cost of herd immunity would be too great in terms of suffering and death among the susceptible population, the researchers say. Healthcare workers would be unable to cope with the influx. Therefore, social distancing, wearing face masks, isolation and tracing are still the only way to control the epidemic for now.
We therefore can no longer hold out hope for natural immunity becoming our solution. Although Michelle Roberts BBC health editor believes we may be able to achieve this with artificial vaccines.
Bidding farewell to herd immunity from COVID-19 chips away one the bankers we were hoping might materialize. We don’t appear to have an option except using common sense and avoiding spreading the COVID-19 virus. However as French philosopher Voltaire born 1694 believed, common sense is not so common.
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Preview Image: The Theory of Herd Immunity
