Dr. Michael Osterholm is director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). He was chatting with Fortune magazine on October 8, 2022 when he remarked “The virus is a three act play. I think we’re only in the second act. That’s the problem.” This begs the question ‘what will autumn COVID be like?’
Will Autumn COVID Be More Infectious or Dangerous?
There’s always be the possibility tomorrow will be like today. The weather often confirms that, but there are exceptions of course. After all, the Deltacron virus containing two strains did fizzle out, and Omicron appears pretty reasonable nowadays. Therefore, autumn COVID could be pretty much more of the same.
However if that’s not the case, then Fortune expects to see “the most immune-evasive, transmissible versions of the virus yet”. Dr. Stuart Ray is vice chair of medicine for data integrity and analytics at Johns Hopkins Department of Medicine.
He inclines to believe “as Omicron evolves, it is rediscovering solutions that have been used before. While bringing some new things along with its lineage. It’s a fascinating part of evolution,” he continues. “We see the same scraps of cloth being used to make a new quilt.”
Will COVID Have a Different Quilt this Autumn?
Dr. Raj Rajnarayanan is assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Arkansas. He explains how variants are collecting identical sets of mutations of concern. We call this process convergence, he explains.
“The viruses are picking up characteristics that help them evade immunity and make it easier for the virus to spread. We’ve not seen this type of immune evasion before,” he adds. “That helps the virus evade our vaccines and treatments.
“None of us know – that’s the challenge right now,” Dr. Michael Osterholm remarks. “We just have to be very humble and say we don’t know what the next shoe to drop is. It’s also possible that we begin to see what I call a soft landing. That would be a gradual lowering in the number of cases.”
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