Sky News posed this intriguing question on February 16, 2021. We say intriguing because it poses unproven theories. None the less, it seems possible India could be approaching herd immunity in some cities. Nearly a fifth of the world’s population lives on the Indian subcontinent. Of these 1.36 billion people, some 41% live in densely populated urban areas.
Drop in Indian COVID-19 Cases Puzzles Experts
The daily infection rate was almost 100,000 at the peak of the surge. But since September 2020, it tumbled to around 11,000 a day according to Sky News. In November 2020, 90% of Delhi’s critical care beds with ventilators had patients. However, last Thursday February 11, 2021 the occupancy was just 16%.
Vaccinations only started rolling out in January, so this alone cannot explain the difference. But the Indian government believes compulsory masking with heavy fines definitely helped. However compliance apparently varies in different areas, whereas the decline is nation-wide. Could some areas have reached herd immunity, asks Vineeta Bal at India’s National Institute of Immunology.
Could India Be Approaching Herd Immunity?
Nationwide antibody screening results appear to deny this possibility. That’s because they suggest just 20% of Indians caught the virus before vaccination began. But this data also reveals a higher infection rate in cities. And the virus is moving slower in rural areas, where more people have outdoor jobs and better-ventilated homes.
Dr. K Srinath Reddy, president of Public Health Foundation believes India could be approaching herd immunity in some urban areas. Better precautions with masks and distancing could also be contributing to lower transmission rates, helping explain the improving numbers.
We’ll leave the final thought to Dr. Shahid Jameel, who studies viruses at India’s Ashoka University. He believes ‘If we don’t know the reason, you could unknowingly be doing things that could lead to a flare-up’. Could India be approaching herd immunity in some urban areas, or is this the calm before another stormy surge.
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Preview Image: Biweekly Confirmed Cases per Million
