South Africa’s industrial hub Gauteng is leading the third national COVID surge, and in the heart of a cold highland winter too. Even Johannesburg’s mayor Geoff Makhubo age 53 has succumbed to COVID related symptoms. Therefore this once again illustrates the virus is no respecter of persons. Now a July 9, 2021 report in Lancet Global Health confirms a greater mortality rate from COVID Beta, based on the previous second wave.
Factors Driving Greater Mortality Rate from COVID Beta
The COVID Beta variant was first noted in October 2020. And it then spread out across South Africa, despite warnings it was more dangerous. However, the vaccination campaign had not yet begun, and the only hope was therefore natural immunity. Thus the inevitable result was increased mortality among hospitalized individuals.
But face masking is still relatively rare in Gauteng unless rigorously enforced. Therefore some large gatherings continue, despite South Africa being in semi lock down, with pubs and restaurants closed. Moreover, this time the nation faces the even more virulent Delta variant in the third wave.
Lancet Global Health’s Findings: Beta in the Second Wave
1… First, peak rates of COVID-19 cases, admissions, and in-hospital deaths were 75% higher in the second wave.
2… Then, hospital admissions were a higher 27.9 per 1,000 in the second wave too, compared to 16.1 per 1,000 in the first.
3… Thirdly, admissions in the second wave were more likely to be older, at ages 40 to 64 years and 65 and older.
4… Moreover. the second wave had a greater mortality of 8.3 deaths per 1,000, versus 3.6 in the first wave.
5…. The weekly average growth rate of hospital admissions jumped to 43% from the previous wave tally of 20%.
6… In addition, the in-hospital case-fatality risk increased from 17·7% to 26·9% in weeks of very high admissions.
7… Lancet thus concludes ‘there was a 31% increased risk of in-hospital mortality in the second wave’.
The journal extracted this data from the DATCOV national active surveillance system for COVID-19 admissions in South Africa. It ascribes the increased admissions and deaths partly to the Beta variant, after discounting demographic factors.
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Preview Image: South Africa Daily Confirmed Deaths
Second Wave Findings in Lancet Global Health
